preview

Conrail Case

Better Essays

Conrail

G455: Corporate Restructuring Team 7

1) Why does CSX want to buy Conrail?
In an industry beset by limited options to consolidate domestic rail traffic, CSX looked at Conrail as an avenue to increase market share and gain access to the North East rail network. With air travel, road travel and trucking taking an increasing share, significant revenue growth became difficult. As Conrail became profitable, Congress explored ways of privatizing it, giving CSX an opportunity to acquire Conrail. Though Conrail suffered from performance inefficiencies it had certain strengths relative to CSX and Norfolk with respect to highest revenue per mile of track operated, per carload originated etc. Conrail with operating revenue of $3,686 …show more content…

Further assume that none of these acquisitions will affect the acquirer’s equity cost of capital.

3) Based on the data in Exhibit 7 and the definition of operating income gains given above, how much should CSX be willing to pay for Conrail? Support your answer with appropriate analysis. According to operating income gains we can value a firm’s market price as its pre-merger value and the present value of gains in operating income. Let’s assume that value of Conrail before the merger is equal to its market cap. Then taking Conrail share price as $71.94 (average of year end and high stock price) and number of shares outstanding as 90.5 million shares (Exhibit 6) we get Conrail market value equal to $6,510.57 million ($71.94 x 90.5 million). We assume G =3%, MRP = 7%. We take risk free as 30-year maturity US Bonds rate, which is 6.83% (Exhibit 8); merged CSX-Conrail equity beta as average of CSX and Conrail equity betas, which is 1.33. rE = rf + MRP βE = 6.83% + 7% x 1.33 = 16.11% Now we can find Conrail’s synergy value as present value of gains in operating income. 1997 Total Gain in Operating Income Total Gain in OI after 40% Tax Gain in OI (discounted @ rE) $ $ $ 1998 $ 88 $ 12.80 $ 7.15 $ $ $ 1999 396 237.60 176.26 $ $ $ 2000 550 330.00 210.84 2001 $ 567 $ 340.20 $ 187.21

Value of estimated gains = $671.46 Terminal value = $2,673.83 Present value of Terminal Value = $2,365.67 Conrail’s Synergy Value is equal to $3,047.13. See ‘Calculations’ spreadsheet

Get Access