Forecasting Methods

Forecasts are extensively used to support business decisions and direct the work of operations managers. The two major types of forecasts are qualitative and quantitative. Within each of these types are multiple methods and models. Qualitative forecasts are based upon subjective data. Quantitative forecasts are derived from objective data. Both methods are not suitable for all situations and circumstances. Each has inherent strengths and weaknesses. The forecaster must understand the strengths and shortcomings of each method and choose appropriately. One example of forecasting is the United States Marine Corps use of forecasting techniques, both qualitative and quantitative, to predict ammunition requirements.

Forecasting is part of a company’s future planning as it attempts to estimate future demand for its product or services. Forecasting is usually measured in specific time periods (months, weeks, etc), given a desired level of accuracy, and assigned a unit of forecasting (sales in units or dollars) (Download Reports 2011). PepsiCo bases its sales forecasts on two main factors: changes in consumer tastes, particularly the rise health consciousness among consumers; and how legal regulations may impact operations, such more federal and local laws

The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer

* Now, assume you have acquired some time series data that would enable you to make short, medium, and long term forecasts. Ascertain the quantitative technique that will provide you with the most accurate forecast. Provide a rationale for your responses

1. What changes are occurring in our workforce today and are likely to continue into the future?

* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.

3. Market Share: forecasting will help in identifying the size of the market share and market potential will aid in the manufacturing and distribution process. Will also aid in proper utilization and eliminate waste.

The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the:

Forecasting numbers and data is an extremely important role in policy making. Economic forecasting plays an integral key role for the decision-making process, helping governments and policy makers to devise major policies and strategies. Many times, there will be an abundant amount of statistical forecasting being done in order to forecast various economic indicators, however the complexity of them changes a lot across different measures. Often times their will be many different sources that have published relatable economic data which conclude of different forecasts for major macroeconomic variables.

Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner, 2009).

2. Why focus on fixing the forecasts? What are the implications of a poor forecast?

1. What factors contribute to the rapid pace of change in business? Is the pace likely to accelerate or decrease over the next decade? Why?

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

A key aspect of economics is the collection and analysis of the vast amounts of data generated throughout global economies. The interpretation of this data can provide important signals for the future direction of the economy. There are two forms of signals that arise from the various economic data that is collected. The first are direct signals, which measure the movement in what is being measured. These usually take the form of a given macro indicator.

Time Series and Associative models are both quantitative forecast techniques are more objective than qualitative techniques such as the Delphi Technique and market research.