Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference M. D. Rossetti, R. R. Hill, B. Johansson, A. Dunkin and R. G. Ingalls, eds.
USING SIMULATION ANALYSIS FOR MINING PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT Undram Chinbat Soemon Takakuwa Furo-cho, Nagoya University Chikusa-ku Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Nagoya University Nagoya, 464-8601, JAPAN ABSTRACT As a result of the current economic crisis, which led to metal prices fall, mining company managers have been encouraged to cut costs. Thus, improvement projects to reduce cost has become major interest in the Mongolian mining industry. Mining projects are subject to high risk because of their size, uncertainty, complexity and high cost. This paper focuses on the development
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2 MINING PROJECT RISKS
The Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), stated that project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has positive or negative effects on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality (PMI 2004). PRM includes the processes concerned with conducting risk management (RM) planning, identification, analysis, responses, and monitoring and control on a project; most of these processes are updated throughout a project. According to the PMBOK RM has been designated as one of the nine PM knowledge areas (the other eight being integration, scope, time, cost, quality, human resources, communications, and procurement management). Consequently, RM is considered as an important activity of the PM process. Mining projects are subject to high risk because of their size, complexity and high cost. Unfortunately, very little research related to a particularly mining project risks have been conducted up to date. Most of the research related to mining project risks studied oil and petroleum well development projects. Del Cano and de la Cruz (2002) noted that RM becomes an integral part of project management and plays such an important role that its application goes beyond the traditional scope which normally center on the construction phase. Williams (1995) stated in his paper titled “A classified bibliography of recent research relating to project risk
Working to understand the risks a project may endure along with the cost associated is critical in every project management plan. Understanding potential risks based on the project type, resources needed, timeline and budget still leaves gaps that creates uncertainty for actually predicating the outcome of the project. There is not a true way to predict when and where a project risk will occur but designing a plan to properly address and manage those risks will increase confidence while eliminating the element of surprise.
risks and determine the likelihood and consequence of that risk occurring during the project. The
Indeed, Project Risk Management includes the processes of conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and controlling risk on a project. (PMBOK Guide - Fifth Edition, 2013).
When the manager of project carried out its work plan should take into consideration the possible risks that may occur within the project. The risk is the possibility that occurs a problem within a project and that may cause some change within the same (Heldman, 2011). It should be noted that not all risks are bad since they can be potential opportunities to make some changes that will improve the overall status of the project. In the same way a risk not taken into account in time can create one problem in the project and can completely change the final performance of the project. The project manager can take several elements to identify the risks. Some elements and documents that can be used to identify risks are: search internal risks of the project, such as resources
Risk mitigation would allow the project manager to know the project’s strengths and weaknesses then evaluate the threats facing the project. The project manager would implement different strategies such as lowering exposure to threats or improving strengths of the project to make sure that the variance in schedule and cost is not very high when there are risk event occurrences. A risk mitigation strategy ensures that the project manager, the implementing team, and the project’s stakeholders are on the same page in the project implementation job. It also gives the project team an opportunity to address risks in advance so resolving additional issues becomes easy when the issues occur later during the implementation of the project. Moreover, the risk management strategy would fine-tune the parameters used for measuring the results of the project (Kerzner,
Risks management is an important step during the process of a project. Failing to manage a risk may result in unforeseen event happening and a project’s failure. For example, with limited budget, an unforeseen event or an accident occurs in the middle of a project and this matter has not been considered and needs a big sum of expense, then the project may be stopped because of this unexpected event. We should know it is necessary to understand how to identify risks and assumptions based on the information. After identifying risks, it is important for project managers to set contingency plans to prevent and deal with these risks when they occur. Of course, several problems may happen during considering
Risk or threat is common and found in various fields of daily life and business. This concept of risk is found in various stages of development and execution of a project. Risks in a project can mean there is a chance that the project will result in total failure, increase of project costs, and an extension in project duration which means a great deal of setbacks for the company. The process of risk management is composed of identifying, assessing, mitigating, and managing the risks of the project. It
Risk management is an ongoing process that must continue through the life of a project. It includes processes for risk management planning, identification, analysis, monitoring, and control. These processes need to be reviewed throughout the project’s lifecycle as new risks arise throughout the implementation of the project. It is the objective of risk management to decrease the probability and impact of events adverse to the project. On the other hand, any event that could have a positive impact should be exploited.
These risks are present while the mining operation is in full swing. Difficulties may arise in the event of a natural catastrophe, BI (business interruption, which can be caused by a variety of factors) and project transition phase risk (involving the attempt to have a seamless transition between the construction and the operational phase) [17].
Construction projects can be extremely complex and fraught with uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty can potentially have damaging consequences for the construction projects. Therefore nowadays, the risk analysis and management continue to be a major feature of the project management of construction projects in an attempt to deal effectively with uncertainty and unexpected events and to achieve project success. Risk is inherent on construction projects and disputes frequently arise. One in four construction projects results in a dispute that leads to arbitration or litigation. With large scale, complex projects the likelihood of serious, time-consuming and expensive claims increases.
Project Risk Management – identifies potential risks (good and bad) that can affect the objectives of the project.
In order to perform project risk management effectively, the organization or the department must know the meaning of the risk clearly. With regards to a project, the management must focus on the potential effects on the objectives of the project, for example, cost and time (Loosemore, Raftery and Reilly, 2006). Risk is a vulnerability that really matters; it can influence the objectives of the project
Proceedings of the 1995 Winter Simulation Conference ed. C. Alexopoulos, K. Kang, W. R. Lilegdon, and D. Goldsman
This assignment is included in the 2014 session of the Risk Management module of the MSc in Project Management course at University of Aberdeen. The main purpose of the assignment is to demonstrate my understanding of the issues involved in Risk Management and how they are applied in my current Project environment. The assignment is split in to two questions as detailed below.
The completion of any project depends on the execution of various parameters mostly set at the beginning of the project. In order to complete the project to satisfactory levels, the project must be completed within the stipulated timelines, fall within the approximate budget and be of the required quality standards. However, most of the projects are affected by adverse changes and unforeseen events that occur during the execution period. Research shows that the magnitude of change is dependent on the size of the project, with large projects experiencing more uncertainties due to several factors including; planning and design complexity, interest groups having deferring opinions, resource availability, Economic and political climate and statutory regulations, which may necessitate change of plan. Most of the uncertainties are known to occur in the concept phase and if not intervened, they may affect the entire project. The burden falls on the management of such risk as some managers choose to ignore the uncertainties since they call for additional costs. Other inherent risks may go unnoticed and therefore remain unsolved,