14. Suppose that the inflation rate is expected to be 3% in the near future. Using the historical data provided in this chapter, what would be your predictions for 1. The T-bill rate 2. The expected rate of return on the stocks portfolio 3. The risk premium on the stock market
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- orse of than the rest of the firm's clients? 19. Suppose that you are a trader at the stock market. T-Mobile's stocks currently trade at $45 and the expected return is 9%. You have information that leads you to believe that by the end of year the company's returns will be around 40%. Are your expectations optimal? How will your behavior influence the stock price?Assume that the economy can experience high growth, normal growth, or recession. Under these conditions, you expect the following stock market returns for the coming year: State of the Economy High Growth Normal Growth Recession Probability 0.2 0.7 0.1 a. Compute the expected value of a $1,000 investment over the coming year. If you invest $1,000 today, how much money do you expect to have next year? What is the percentage expected rate of return? Return 45% 20% - 4% Instructions: Enter dollar values rounded to the nearest whole dollar and percentages rounded to one decimal place. The expected value is $ and the expected rate of return is b. Compute the standard deviation of the percentage return over the coming year. Standard deviation = = % % %. c. If the risk-free return is 7 percent, what is the risk premium for a stock market investment? Risk premiumQuestion 6 (6 points): Hedge March 15th: A packer needs to buy Live Cattle in early June. Currently the June Live Cattle (LC) futures are trading at $175.650/cwt. The expected basis is $1.50/cwt. • Does the packer have a long or short cash position?. • Does the packer have a long or short futures position? (buy/sell) June LC futures at • • To hedge: The packer will $175.650/cwt. What is the expected price? June 10th. • The packer must. (buy/sell) cattle locally in the cash market at • $185.025/cwt. To offset their future position, they must $183.00/cwt. What is the actual basis? What is the realized price for the producer? o Method 1: o Method 2: ○ The hedge resulted in a realized price of (buy/sell) June futures at
- Question 4 (6 points): Hedge January 20th: Miller needs to buy wheat in late April. Currently, the May wheat futures are trading at $6.67. The expected basis is -$0.30. • Does the miller have a long or short cash position? • Does the miller have a long or short futures position? ⚫ To hedge: The miller will April 30th What is the expected price?. • The miller must. (buy/sell) May wheat futures at $6.67/bu. (buy/sell) wheat locally in the cash market at $7.89/bu. • To offset their future position, they must $8.04/bu. • What is the actual basis?. • What is the realized price for the producer? 。 Method 1: о Method 2: о The hedge resulted in a realized price of (buy/sell) May futures atSuppose that all investors have the disposition effect. A new stock has just been issued at a price of $50, so all investors in this stock purchased the stock today. A year from now the stock will be taken over, for a price of $60 or $40 depending on the news that comes out over the year. The stock will pay no dividends. Investors will sell the stock whenever the price goes up by more than 10%. a. Suppose good news comes out in 6 months (implying the takeover offer will be $60). What equilibrium price will the stock trade for after the news comes out, that is, the price that equates supply and demand? b. Assume that you are the only investor that does not suffer from the disposition effect and your trades are small enough to not affect prices. Without knowing what will actually transpire, what trading strategy would you instruct your broker to follow?Suppose that all investors have the disposition effect. A new stock has just been issued at a price of $61, so all investors in this stock purchased the stock today. A year from now the stock will be taken over, for a price of $73 or $49 depending on the news that comes out over the year. The stock will pay no dividends. Investors will sell the stock whenever the price goes up by more than 10%. a. Suppose good news comes out in 6 months (implying the takeover offer will be $73). What equilibrium price will the stock trade for after the news comes out, that is, the price that equates supply and demand? b. Assume that you are the only investor that does not suffer from the disposition effect and your trades are small enough to not affect prices. Without knowing what will actually transpire, what trading strategy would you instruct your broker to follow? .... a. Suppose good news comes out in 6 months (implying the takeover offer will be $73). What equilibrium price will the stock trade…
- Q1. What is an index? How does an index help an investor?Question 3 (6.5 points): Hedge October 15th: A producer plans to sell wheat in early July; currently, July wheat futures are trading at 680'6. The expected basis is $0.60 under. July 1 • Does the producer have a long or short cash position? Does the producer have a long or short futures position? To hedge: The producer will per bushel. What is the expected cash price? (buy/sell) July wheat futures at 680'6 ⚫ The producer must (buy/sell) wheat locally in the cash market at 562'2 per bushel. To offset their future position, they must. 599'4 per bushel. • What is the actual basis? • (buy/sell) July futures at 。 Was the basis stronger, weaker, or the same as expected? What is the realized price for the producer? Method 1: 。 Method 2: 。 The hedge resulted in a realized price ofWhich of the following investment strategies involves generating a higher expected rate of return through increasing risk? Answer a. Leverage b. Value at risk c. Diversifying d. Hedging risk
- If inflation rises, why is a bond more likely to be sold at a discount to its face value?Explain, with reference to the bond’s coupon.You are considering purchasing a 10-year bond and follow the theory of rational expectations. If you have justread the annual report of the central bank in your country that states interest rates are higher than expected,will you buy the bond today or in the next month?The Bloomberg index, which tracks investment-grade bonds, was down more than 13% in 2022. The stock market went also south as the S&P 500 slid down more than 20% last year. Neither market helped investors. Why was the bond market down last year? Some analysts are forecasting that the bond market will perform better in 2023. Why are they taking that position? Would you realigned your portfolio to more in bonds than stocks this year? Use textbook and outside news sources to support your answers. TEXTBOOK: Economics of Money, Banking & Financial Markets; by Mishkin, Edition 13th