Please see attached 9.1. You are given the following payoff table (in units of thousands of dollars) for a decision analysis problem without probabilities.State of NatureAlternativeSi Sz S3A14A243Аз1a. Which alternative should be chosen under the maximax criterion?3.00

Maximax criteria in decision making indicating the model of choosing the right decision without…

Answered: a. Which alternative should be chosen…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.4: The Precision Tree Add-in

Problem 9P

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3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
7. Consider the following decision table, which Joe Blackburn has developed for Vanderbilt Enterprises: States of Nature Decision Alternatives Probability: 0.35 0.25 0.40 Low Medium High A $35 $80 $65 B $85 $50 $70 C $55 $70 $75 D $70 $85 $65 E $70 $75 $85 Part 2 The alternative that provides Blackburn the greatest expected monetary value (EMV LOADING... ) is ▼ D E A B C The EMV for this decision is $_______(enter your answer as a whole number).
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
I want to answer to solve ㅠㅠㅠㅠ. Q1. A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to but and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities Cost of land $2 MillionProbability of rezoning .6If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70% chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chin for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30% chance that she can…
A landlord can either lease for one or two years or sell offices outrightly for K100 million with payoffs as follows: Lease -100 50 150 Sell 100 100 100 The probability of rejecting is 30%, leasing for one year is 50% and for two years 20%. Required: What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? What is the expected value of perfect information? A decision maker is looking to minimising costs through three alternative decisions a1 , b2 and c3 under two states of nature/events S1 and S2 with S1 having a probability of 30% . For a1 payoffs for s1 K100 million and s2 K540 million For a2 payoff for s1 K150 million and s2 –K50 million For a3 payoff for s1 K350 million and s2 K320 million Required: Find EMV and recommend the course of action Find the…
Very Favorable Average Market Unfavorable Alternatives Market Market Build new plant $250,000 $180.000 - S200,000 Subcontract $270.000 $185,000 - $220,000 Overtime S100.000 $50,000 - $12.000 Do Nothing SO SO $0 a) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ b) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ c) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ (enter your answer as a whole number).
What is the best decision alternative under Maximax criterion? (Provide complete decision table solution) DIHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small- time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both…
Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?
Decision Tree Analysis. You are considering the decision to purchase a machine for internal production or to subcontract the work to an external source. The following information has been provided by your financial managers: Cost to purchase the machine—$35,000 Cost to subcontract the work—$5,000 Probability of a good market = 70% Probability of a poor market = 30% Reward if the prediction occurs: In the purchase machine decision good market scenario—$80,000; in the poor market scenario—$30,000 In the Subcontract decision good market scenario—$50,000; in the poor market scenario—$15,000 1. What is the expected value of the decision to purchase the machine?
Answer A.2 a-e a-c is in the picture here is d and e d) What is the qually likely decision? e) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.
Your company must decide whether to introduce a new product. The sales of the product will be either at a high (success) or low (failure) level. The conditional value for this decision is as follows Decision High Low Introduce $4,000,000 -$2,000,000 Do Not Introduce 0 0 Probability 0.3 0.7 You have the option to conduct a market survey to sharpen you market demand estimate. The survey costs $200,000. The survey provides incomplete information about the sales, with three possible outcomes: (1) predicts high sales, (2) predicts low sales, or (3) inconclusive. Such surveys have in the past provided these results Result High Low Predicts High 0.4 0.1 Inconclusive 0.4 0.5 Predicts Low 0.2 0.4 c) Draw the complete decision tree, including the survey option. Explain where the values on the decision tree come from
Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…

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