Construct a decision tree of the above situation clearly identifying the decision and chance nodes. b) What are the expected payoffs for each decision and what would be your recommendation to Ellen? c) If Ellen had the relevant information on all the possibilities, what would be her expected payoff? d) What price would you recommend she pays to acquire the additional relevant information?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 32P
icon
Related questions
Question

Ellen is a leading comedian in the USA. A movie producing company and a TV network both want exclusive rights to her latest comedy series. The TV network is willing to pay a single lump sum, but if she signed with the movie company, the sum she receives will depend on how the market responds to her series. The network is willing to pay a flat $900,000-00. The movie company is prepared to pay $200,000-00, $1,001, 000-00, and $3,000,000-00 for a ‘Minimal Hit’, ‘Average Hit’, and ‘Massive Hit’, respectively. The statisticians are forecasting a 30% probability of a minimal hit, 60% for an average hit, and a 10% for massive hit.

Required:

a) Construct a decision tree of the above situation clearly identifying the decision and chance nodes.

b) What are the expected payoffs for each decision and what would be your recommendation to Ellen?

c) If Ellen had the relevant information on all the possibilities, what would be her expected payoff?

d) What price would you recommend she pays to acquire the additional relevant information?

Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 3 steps with 2 images

Blurred answer
Knowledge Booster
Data analytics tools
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.
Similar questions
  • SEE MORE QUESTIONS
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:
9781337406659
Author:
WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:
Cengage,