Demand for the last four months was: July,20 units; August, 25 units; September, 34 units; October, 36 units. If the naive method was used to forecast the demand, what would MSE be for these months? O 5.33 O 17.34
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
- P2. Over past 4 weeks, KAMM (Kuwait Arab Malls Monitor) reported a severe decline in French products consumption -- in Millions of items: 400M, 300M, 50M, 1M. KAMM need to know expected forecast next week.March demand was pridicted at 590 units of gear cycles of trevaa ltd. But the actual demand was 400 units only so fourth the company now want to forecast the april demand using exponential smoothing model with constant alpha of 0.72., calculate the sameForecast February by: Arithmetic Average Weighted moving average, weights are 8 and 2. Which method is better based on MFE PERIOD Demand Sept. 60 Oct. 50 Nov. 60 Dec. 70 Jan. 60 Feb. ?
- Problem 4- do both a three period moving average and an exponential smoothing forecast with an alpha of .2. Calculate the MAD and MPE for each. Months Actuals 1 400 2. 350 3 325 4. 300 300 6. 285 7. 290Given an actual demand this period of 100, a forecast value for this period of 130, and an alpha of 0.6, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period? (Round answer to the nearest whole number.) O A. 100 OB. 130 C. 82 O D. O E. 112 118Medanalysis, Inc., provides medical laboratory services to patients of Health Providers, a group of 10 family-practice doctors associated with a new health maintenance program. Managers are interested in forecasting thenumber of blood analysis requests per week. Recent publicity about the damaging effects of cholesterol on theheart has caused a national increase in requests for standard blood tests. The arrivals over the last 16 weeks aregiven in Table 8.1. What is the forecasted demand for the next three periods?
- Period Demand 1 2 3 4 5 64 ៩៩៨៖ 62 65 61 66 a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of 0.4 for the most recent period, 0.3 for the next most recent, 0.2 for the next, and 0.1 for the next. (Round all your answers to two decimal points.) Forecast Period 5 Forecast Period 6 b. If the actual demand for period 6 is 65, forecast demand for period 7 using the same weights as in part a. Forecast Period 7QUESTIONS: Quarterly demand for a washing machine is as shown. 1. After obtaining initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors. forecast the demand for the first quarter of year III using Winter's model with a 6- - 0,25 where x is the last two digits of your student number. 2. Make a tracking signal analysis for the forecast and evaluate Maks Year I II Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Demand 1900 1224 4000 5600 4800 1048 6200 8000Using the double exponential smoothing forecast, is it possible to forecast a demand thatis bigger than any previously observed demand?a. Yesb. No
