For your next 10k race of the athletics season, you consider competing in either Sheffield, Cardiff, or Birmingham. After considering results from past years and the three different routes, you estimate your prize money, which will also depend on your form on the day. These estimated prizes are shown in the following table: Good form Average form Bad form 0 Sheffield 1000 Cardiff 700 Birmingham 800 400 500 600 200 100 Which condition must a satisfy such that Birmingham is the optimal city to go compete, according to the optimism-pessimism rule?
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- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationA salesperson uses three different airlines. The probabilities of switching from one airline to another in consecutive flights are shown below. If the last flight was on Delta, what is the probability that the next was on American? American Delta Southwest American 0.5 0.25 0.25 Delta 0.2 0.6 0.2 Southwest 0.3 0.3 0.4 A 0.5 B 0.2 C 0.25 D 0.6Use the below formula to calculate the CLV for the following: A manager of a cable company wants to determine if it is strategic to acquire the Brett family, by estimating their household-level CLV. The manager estimates that it will cost the company $80 (A) to get the Bretts’ to switch, and the Bretts’ will generate $150 profit each year (M), with a $30 annual marketing cost to retain them (C). The estimated retention rate (r) is 65%, and the current discount rate is 5%.(d) i) CLV= ii) Based on your calculation, are the Brett’s profitable to the cable company?
- A national survey indicated that 30% of adults conduct their banking online. It also found that 40% are under the age of 50, and that 25% are under the age of 50 and conduct their banking online. A. What percentage of adults do not conduct their banking online? B. What type of probability is the 25% mentioned above? Just write down the name of the probability. C. Construct a joint probability table showing all joint and marginal probabilities.The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.10 Investors will be indifferent between two investments if both investments have the same expected return. Select one: True False
- As employees leave a company, they are asked to rate their level of job satisfaction during the time they were employed by the company. A sample set of scores (out of a maximum of 10) is provided below. 3 6 4 4 5 2 1 3 2 5 3 7 2 2 3 1 9 1 Use the information provided in the table to calculate: The median; The mode; The mean; The lower quartile (Q1); The upper quartile (Q3); The interquartile range (IQR); The standard deviation. State whether or not the ex-employees were likely to have left the company as a result of lack of job satisfaction. Use the statistics above to justify your conclusion. Discuss in which ways the company could benefit from making these statistics available to its current employees.A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0Sales of a company (in $100,000) for the last 7 years are listed in the following table. Use the data as given in the table, do not include the hundred thousand at the end of the values. Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 6 15 10 4 2 10 18 15 7 3 14 26 23 12 4 19 28 25 18 5 22 34 28 21 6 24 36 30 20 7 28 40 35 27 What are the adjusted R^2, and forecasts for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 of Year 8 using this model? 4 decimals. Adjusted R^2: Q1: Q2: Q3: Q4:
- Texas Petroleum Company is a producer of crude oil that is considering two drilling projects with the following profit outcomes and associated probabilities: Drilling Project, A Profit -$300,000 100,000 500,000 600,000 Probability (percent) 10 60 20 10 Drilling Project, B Profit -$600,000 100,000 300,000 1,000,000 The manager's attitude toward risk is as follows: Profit ($'000) -600 -300 100 U(II) 0.00 0.05 0.20 Note: U(II) stands for utility index of profit. 300 0.30 500 0.45 Probability (percent) 15 25 40 20 600 0.55 1,000 1.00 In making decision under risk, which project will be chosen by the manager of Texas Petroleum Company based on his behaviour toward risk? Also describe the manager's ways of handling decision-making associate with risk. Justify your answers using numerical explanation.Quarterly sales of a local department store over a 4-year period are given below: Quarters 2016 Q1 Sales (in millions) 500 Quarters 2018 Q1 Sales (in millions) 560 2016 Q2 490 580 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2016 Q3 570 630 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 750 720 480 540 500 590 2017 Q3 580 2019 Q3 620 2017 Q4 740 2019 Q4 790 The data shows sign of seasonality. By computing seasonal indices for each quarter, forecast the sales for each quarter in year 2020, given that the estimated sales in 2020 isThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 Decision tree leading to market study/ prediction of favorable…