Please include excel statement Solve the following decision tree.Whichdo you choose (choice 1, 2, 3, or 4)?And if it's 4, what choices do you make after that?0Choice 1$100.00Choice 2-$50.00Choice 3-$25.0025%Outcome 5$50075%Outcome 6025%Outcome 10$80025%Outcome 11$15035%Outcome 12$7515%Outcome 13-$250.000000 0Choice 3-$25.00Choice 4-$100.00$15035%Outcome 12$7515%Outcome 13-$250.00Alternative 14-$75.00Alternative 15-$125.0000070%Outcome 16$1,00030%Outcome 17$250.00Alternative 18-$200.00Alternative 19$5000

Find the Decision tree below: The decision tree and the necessary calculations are shown in the…

Answered: Solve the following decision tree.…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.5: Multistage Decision Problems

Problem 19P

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You now have 5000. You will toss a fair coin four times. Before each toss you can bet any amount of your money (including none) on the outcome of the toss. If heads comes up, you win the amount you bet. If tails comes up, you lose the amount you bet. Your goal is to reach 15,000. It turns out that you can maximize your chance of reaching 15,000 by betting either the money you have on hand or 15,000 minus the money you have on hand, whichever is smaller. Use simulation to estimate the probability that you will reach your goal with this betting strategy.
A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states of nature. O True O False * Previous Next ► MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 セゴ F5 $ & レ 9 * 00
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
States of Nature Alternatives Very Favorable Market Average Market Unfavorable Market Build new plant $300,000 $210,000 −$280,000 Subcontract $160,000 $100,000 −$15,000 Overtime $120,000 $70,000 −$8,000 Do Nothing $0 $0 $0 Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax the appropriate decision will be... (Do Nothing) (Build new plant) (Overtime) (Subcontract) The value of the return under this decision is Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin the appropriate decision will be... (Subcontract) (Overtime) (Do Nothing) (Build new plant) The value of the return under this decision is Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely the appropriate decision will be (Do Nothing) (Subcontract) (Build new plant) (Overtime) The value of the return under this decision is
3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
This is a decision made or course of action taken when faced with a set of alternatives. O Cost O Choice O Outcome O Opportunity
The Decision Variables in a What If analysis provide the limitations for each variable. True False
6- In decision making process, the worst alternative is the one which have a. More positives with less negatives b. Less positives with less negatives c. More negatives with less positives d. More positives with more negatives
Very Favorable Average Market Unfavorable Alternatives Market Market Build new plant $250,000 $180.000 - S200,000 Subcontract $270.000 $185,000 - $220,000 Overtime S100.000 $50,000 - $12.000 Do Nothing SO SO $0 a) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ b) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ c) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ (enter your answer as a whole number).
Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent on the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): (bold and underline is answer/ --- = needs answer) State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.40, P(s2) = 0.40, and P(s3) = 0.20. Do not round your intermediate calculations. (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. Purchase Component Part (b) Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. Enter your answer in thousands dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000. Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of…
The preference of an agents on lotteries can be represented by an expected utility function u such that u(x) = 3y^1/2 -10. Then the agent is A) not risk averse B) risk loving C) risk neutral D) risk averse E) NOPAC

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Solve the following decision tree. Which do you choose (choice 1, 2, 3, or 4)? And if it's 4, what choices do you make after that?