The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH COMPLAINTS January 38 February 49 March 85 April 97 May 115 June 144 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May?

The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH COMPLAINTS January 38 February 49 March 85 April 97 May 115 June 144 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.6: Moving Averages Models

Problem 22P: The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH COMPLAINTS January 39 February 50 March 88 April 99 May June 115 154 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May?
Below is the number of complaints received in a department store for the first six months of operation: Month Complaints January February March April May June 37 48 84 96 114 148 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for July, rounded to the nearest whole number?
If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May? The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH COMPLAINTS January 37 February 48 March 84 April 96 May 114 June 148 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May? 114 121 76 73
The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH January February March April May June COMPLAINTS 36 45 81 90 Forecast for May 108 144 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May?
The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October 5 Pints Used 350 370 410 381 371 378 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = 376.67 pints (round your response to two decimal places). b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.20, 0.35, and 0.45, using 0.45 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.)
The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows: Month Sales Jan 19 Feb Mar 17 21 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct 12 15 18 15 19 20 20 This exercise contains only parts b and c. b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method = 22 sales (round your response to a whole number). Nov Dec 20 22 The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 3-month moving average approach = 20.67 sales (round your response to two decimal places). The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 6-month weighted average with weights of 0.10, 0.10, 0.10, 0.20, 0.20, and 0.30, where the heaviest weights are applied to the most recent month = sales (round your response to one decimal place).
1. The number of bushels of apples sold at a roadside fruit stand over a 12-day period were PROBLEMS as follows: Day Numbar Sold Day Number Sold 25 35 31 29 33 32 38 10 40 37 32 34 11 37 12 If a two-period moving average has been used to forecast sales, what were the daily forecasts starting with the forecast for day 3? If a four-period moving average has been used, what were the forecasts for eacn uay starting with day 5? Plot the original data and each set of forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast has the greater tendency to smooth? Which forecast has the better ability to respond quickly to changes? What does use of the term sales instead of demand imply? b. C. 2. If exponential smoothing with a = .4 had been used to forecast daily sales for apples in Problem 1, determine what the daily forecasts would have been. Then, plot the original data, the exponential forecasts, and a set of naive forecasts on the same graph. Based on a visual comparison, is the naive more accurate or…