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The purpose of this assignment is to give you an opportunity to create a forecast based on data and interpret the results. You will also gain more practice with Minitab. Forecasting future commodity prices can be important for many production operations. One such commodity is the price of aluminum ($US per metric ton). For this assignment, you are asked to use Minitab to create two forecasts based upon the data provided below. First, create a one period forecast based upon a three month moving average. Second, create a one period forecast based upon exponential smoothing (using a smoothing weight of 0.95). Compare the two forecasts based upon the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure of accuracy. Interpret your results. The Data: Month Price Jan-18 2,209.73 Feb-18 2,181.79 Mar-18 2,069.24 Apr-18 2,254.69 May-18 2,299.67 Jun-18 2,237.62 Jul-18 2,082.24 Aug-18 2,051.51 Sep-18 2,026.46 Oct-18 2,029.86 Nov-18 1,938.51 Dec-18 1,920.38 Jan-19 1,853.72 Feb-19 1,862.99

The purpose of this assignment is to give you an opportunity to create a forecast based on data and interpret the results. You will also gain more practice with Minitab. Forecasting future commodity prices can be important for many production operations. One such commodity is the price of aluminum ($US per metric ton). For this assignment, you are asked to use Minitab to create two forecasts based upon the data provided below. First, create a one period forecast based upon a three month moving average. Second, create a one period forecast based upon exponential smoothing (using a smoothing weight of 0.95). Compare the two forecasts based upon the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure of accuracy. Interpret your results. The Data: Month Price Jan-18 2,209.73 Feb-18 2,181.79 Mar-18 2,069.24 Apr-18 2,254.69 May-18 2,299.67 Jun-18 2,237.62 Jul-18 2,082.24 Aug-18 2,051.51 Sep-18 2,026.46 Oct-18 2,029.86 Nov-18 1,938.51 Dec-18 1,920.38 Jan-19 1,853.72 Feb-19 1,862.99

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...
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The purpose of this assignment is to give you an opportunity to create a forecast based on data and interpret the results. You will also gain more practice with Minitab. Forecasting future commodity prices can be important for many production operations. One such commodity is the price of aluminum ($US per metric ton). For this assignment, you are asked to use Minitab to create two forecasts based upon the data provided below. First, create a one period forecast based upon a three month moving average. Second, create a one period forecast based upon exponential smoothing (using a smoothing weight of 0.95). Compare the two forecasts based upon the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure of accuracy. Interpret your results. The Data: Month Price Jan-18 2,209.73 Feb-18 2,181.79 Mar-18 2,069.24 Apr-18 2,254.69 May-18 2,299.67 Jun-18 2,237.62 Jul-18 2,082.24 Aug-18 2,051.51 Sep-18 2,026.46 Oct-18 2,029.86 Nov-18 1,938.51 Dec-18 1,920.38 Jan-19 1,853.72 Feb-19 1,862.99
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