Medical cases histories indicate that different illnesses may produce identical symptoms. Suppose a particular set of symptoms, “H” occurs only with probabilities 0.01, 0.005 and 0.02, respectively. The probability of developing the symptoms H, given illness A, B and C are 0.90, 0.95 and 0.75, respectively. Assuming that an ill person shows symptoms H, what is the probability that a person has illness A?

Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Chapter12: Probability
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Medical cases histories indicate that different illnesses may produce

identical symptoms. Suppose a particular set of symptoms, “H” occurs

only with probabilities 0.01, 0.005 and 0.02, respectively. The probability

of developing the symptoms H, given illness A, B and C are 0.90, 0.95 and

0.75, respectively. Assuming that an ill person shows symptoms H, what is

the probability that a person has illness A?

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