Assignment # 1
Forecasting (Total marks: 100)
Following 10 Problems are for submission
Problem 1: [12]
Registration numbers for an accounting seminar over the past 10 weeks are shown below:
|Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 |
|Registrations 24 23 28 30 38 32 36 40 44 40 |
a) Starting with week 2 and ending with week 11, forecast registrations using the naive forecasting method. [2] b) Starting with week 3 and ending with week 11, forecast registration using a two-week moving average. [3] c) Starting with week 5
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[3]
Problem 9 [8]
Given the following data, use least squares regression to develop a relation between the number of rainy summer days and the number of games lost by the Boca Raton Cardinal base ball team.
Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Rainy Days 15 25 10 10 30 20 20 15 10 25
Games Lost 25 20 10 15 20 15 20 10 5 20
Problem 10 [16]
Dr. Jerilyn Ross, a New York City psychologist, specializes in treating patients who are agoraphobic (afraid to leave their homes). The following table indicates how many patients Dr. Ross has seen each year for the past 10 years. It also indicates what the robbery rate was in New York City during the same year.
|Year |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
|Actual Battery sales |20 |21 |15 |14 |13 |14 |
|Forecast |22 | | | | | |
Problem 6:
Use the sales data given below to determine: (a) the least squares trend line, and (b) the predicted value for 2000 sales.
|Year |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |
|Sales (units) |100 |110 |122 |130 |139 |152
Pam and Susan’s department stores are in the process of opening a new business unit. There are two locations that are being considered for the new store and decision is based upon estimates of sales for both of them. My job is to use data gathered from each store as well census data in store’s trading zones to predict sales at both of the sites that are being consider for their newest store.
4) Use cubic regression to determine an equation for the data (or lwh where (12 – x) represents the sides and (x) represents the height of the box).
In this cash forecast I will analyse where the Steve’s business can improve on whether they are making a profit or not. Also I need to identify where they have regular inflow and outflows and irregular inflow and outflows. I will also comment on how the fresh business can maintain more regular numbers.
29. A distribution center for a chain of electronics supply stores fills and ships orders to retail outlets. A random sample of orders is selected as they are received and the dollar amount of the order (in thousands of dollars) is recorded, and then the time (in hours) required to fill the order and have it ready for shipping is determined. A scatterplot showing the times as the response variable and the dollar amounts (in thousands of dollars) as the predictor shows a linear trend. The least squares regression line is determined to be: yˆ= 0.76 +1.8x. A plot of the residuals versus the dollar amounts showed no pattern, and the following values were reported: Correlation r +0.90; R 2 = 0.81; standard deviation of the residuals is 0.48. What percentage of the variation in the times required to prepare an order for shipping is accounted for by the fitted line?
Additional Notes: SCP-2491 has become very quiet and does not speak unless told to. It appears to rather be silent but this may just be due to the psychological impact of being tested on multiple times.
The question that I will be answering in my regression analysis is whether or not wins have an affect on attendance in Major League Baseball (MLB). I want to know whether or not wins and other variables associated with attendance have a positive impact on a team 's record. The y variable in my analysis is going to be attendance for each baseball team. I collected the
In an attempt to improve this model, we attempt to do a multiple regression model predicting SALES based on CALLS, TIME, and YEARS.
Background: A significant association exists between Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) & Atrial Fibrillation (AFib). Limited studies have demonstrated that the AFib patients with OSA have worse symptoms and increase hospitalizations as compared to those without OSA. We assessed the impact of previously diagnosed OSA on in-hospital outcomes (Length of Stay and Cost of Stay) in the patients with AFib.
* As stated in the guidelines, we also assume that the mean of the demand is equal to the product of the mean of the forecasting error and the forecast itself, and the same for the standard deviation of demand;
Plans, Actual Results and Forecasts that depends on management’s needs; some daily some only once per year.
3. Refer to the monthly sales forecasts given in the first Table. Assume that these amounts are realized and that the firm’s customers pay exactly as predicted.
We will be using the seasonal trend above to forecast the 5 Saturday home game in 2011
The weighted average was used to obtain data for product one. This method was used because the most recent weeks have the highest likelihood of predicting the upcoming weeks. It is low cost and easily obtained and it is more reflective of the recent occurrences. A simple naive forecasting was used to calculate the second product. This method relies on intuition and takes into account the recent trends. This method was used because of its simple application.
So you first predict the independent variable, then look at the established relationships between that independent variable and the dependent ones to predict what the dependent variables will be. You then develop an equation that summarizes the effects of predictor variables.