A businessman must decide whether to open a new mini grocery branch or simply extend the number of hours of its operation on its existing branch with a payoff of P 150,000. According to his friend, demand at the new location can either be low or high, which the probabilities are estimated to be 35% and 65%, respectively.  If a new branch is opened and demand proves to be low, there is no need to operate on a 24-hr basis but instead, they will stick to 12-hrs operation with a payoff of P 100,000 or enhance marketing strategy through advertising.  Projected response to advertising may either be favorable or not favorable, with estimated probabilities of 40% and 60%, respectively.  If demand is favorable, the payoff grows to P 310,000 and if response is unfavorable, the payoff is P 120,000.  The cost of advertising is P45,000.   Required:       a.  Draw a decision tree

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter12: Queueing Models
Section12.5: Analytic Steady-state Queueing Models
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  1. A businessman must decide whether to open a new mini grocery branch or simply extend the number of hours of its operation on its existing branch with a payoff of P 150,000. According to his friend, demand at the new location can either be low or high, which the probabilities are estimated to be 35% and 65%, respectively.  If a new branch is opened and demand proves to be low, there is no need to operate on a 24-hr basis but instead, they will stick to 12-hrs operation with a payoff of P 100,000 or enhance marketing strategy through advertising.  Projected response to advertising may either be favorable or not favorable, with estimated probabilities of 40% and 60%, respectively.  If demand is favorable, the payoff grows to P 310,000 and if response is unfavorable, the payoff is P 120,000.  The cost of advertising is P45,000.

 

Required:       a.  Draw a decision tree

                        b.Determine the expected value for each decision and event nodes.

  1. Which alternative is the best for the businessman?
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