Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 11.3, Problem 23P
Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are $42.76, $81.33, and, $58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and
- a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%?
- b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?
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Chapter 11 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 11.2 - If the number of competitors in Example 11.1...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from...Ch. 11.2 - Referring to Example 11.1, if the average bid for...Ch. 11.2 - See how sensitive the results in Example 11.2 are...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.2, the gamma distribution was used...Ch. 11.2 - Prob. 6PCh. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, suppose you want to run five...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, if a batch fails to pass...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...
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