Concept explainers
a)
To estimate: The probability that he will exercise his option.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to
b)
To estimate: The net profit of his strategy.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to forecast the performance of the system or model in the real world.
c)
To estimate: The probability that he will net over $300.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to forecast the performance of the system or model in the real world.
d)
To estimate: The worth of the contract to him.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to forecast the performance of the system or model in the real world.
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Chapter 11 Solutions
Practical Management Science
- Jose wants to set up a 10 year GRAT and does not want to have a taxable gift. He wants to transfer $1,236,021 million to the GRAT on 9/31/2020 when the 7520 interest rate is .4%. What annuity payment does he need to receive for there to be no taxable gift?arrow_forwardEllen is a leading comedian in the USA. A movie producing company and a TV network both want exclusive rights to her latest comedy series. The TV network is willing to pay a single lump sum, but if she signed with the movie company, the sum she receives will depend on how the market responds to her series. The network is willing to pay a flat $900,000-00. The movie company is prepared to pay $200,000-00, $1,001, 000-00, and $3,000,000-00 for a ‘Minimal Hit’, ‘Average Hit’, and ‘Massive Hit’, respectively. The statisticians are forecasting a 30% probability of a minimal hit, 60% for an average hit, and a 10% for massive hit. Required: a) Construct a decision tree of the above situation clearly identifying the decision and chance nodes. b) What are the expected payoffs for each decision and what would be your recommendation to Ellen? c) If Ellen had the relevant information on all the possibilities, what would be her expected payoff? d) What price would you recommend she pays to acquire…arrow_forwardStrassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property, it can then be sold for $155,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $145,000. (a) What is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of $125,000? (Use at least 5,000 trials. Round your answer three decimal places.) (b) How much does Strassel need to bid to be assured of obtaining the property? $125,000 $135,000 $145,000 (c) Use the simulation model to compute the profit for each trial of…arrow_forward
- Strassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property, it can then be sold for $155,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $145,000. (a) What is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of $125,000? (Use at least 5,000 trials. Round your answer three decimal places.) 0.418 x (b) How much does Strassel need to bid to be assured of obtaining the property? O $125,000 O $135,000 O $145,000 (c) Use the simulation model to compute the profit for…arrow_forwardStrassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property, it can then be sold for $155,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $145,000. (a) What is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of $125,000? (Use at least 5,000 trials. Round your answer three decimal places.) 0.418 (b) How much does Strassel need to bid to be assured of obtaining the property? O $125,000 O $135,000 O $145,000 (c) Use the simulation model to compute the profit for…arrow_forwardThe CEO of a company is considering submitting a bid to purchase property that will be sold by sealed bid. His initial judgment is to submit a bid of $5 million. Based on his experience, he estimates that a bid of $5 million will have a 0.2 of being the highest bid and securing the property for the company. The current date is June 1. Sealed bids must be submitted by August 15. The winning bid will be announced on September 1. If the company submits the highest bid and obtain the property, it plans to build and sell a complex of luxury condominiums. However, a complicating factor is that the property is currently zoned for single-family residences only. The CEO believes that a referendum could be placed on the voting ballot in time for the November elections. Passage of the referendum would change the zoning property and permit construction of luxury condominiums. The sealed bid procedure requires the bid to be submitted with a certified check for 10% of the amount bid. If the bid is…arrow_forward
- Strassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property, it can then be sold for $153,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $143,000. (a) What is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of $123,000? (Use at least 5,000 trials. Round your answer three decimal places.) (b) How much does Strassel need to bid to be assured of obtaining the property? $123,000 $133,000 $143,000 (c) Use the simulation model to compute the profit for each trial of…arrow_forwardStrassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property, it can then be sold for $156,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $146,000. (a) What is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of $126,000? (Use at least 5,000 trials. Round your answer three decimal places.) (b) How much does Strassel need to bid to be assured of obtaining the property? $126,000 $136,000 $146,000 (c) Use the simulation model to compute the profit…arrow_forwardIt is the beginning of September and you have been offered the following deal to go heli-skiing. If you pick the first week in January and pay for your vacation now, you can get a week of heli-skiing for $1500. However, if you cannot ski because the helicopters cannot fly due to bad weather, there is no snow, or you get sick, you do not get a refund. There is a 25% probability that you will not be able to ski. If you wait until the last minute and go only if you know that the conditions are perfect and you are well, the vacation will cost $4000. You estimate that the pleasure you get from heli-skiing is worth $6300 per week to you (if you had to pay any more than that, you would choose not to go). If your cost of capital is 12% per year, should you book ahead or wait and why? (A decision tree is needed in the answer)arrow_forward
- A 5-year annuity of ten $5,300 semiannual paymentswill begin 9 years from now, with the first payment coming 9.5 years from now. If thediscount rate is 12 percent compounded monthly, what is the value of this annuityfive years from now? What is the value three years from now? What is the currentvalue of the annuity?arrow_forwardCalculate the present value of a $1,000 zero-coupon bond with six years to maturity if the yield to maturity is 7%.arrow_forwardA recent MBA graduate is considering an offer of employment at a biotech company, where she has been offered stock options as part of her compensation package. The options give her the right, but not the obligation, to buy 2500 shares of stock either one year from now or two years from now at a price of $50, which is the current market price of the stock. If the price of the stock has risen above $50 at either time, she can buy 2500 shares at $50 and then immediately sell at the current price, thereby making a risk-free profit. On the other hand, if the price of the stock has dropped below $50, she will not exercise the option because it is “out of the money” and she would loose money. Based on historical market information, she estimates that the stock price in the first year will either go up by 25% from its current price, with probability of 0.55, or it will go down by 15%, with probability of 0.45. In either case, she can exercise the options or wait to see what will happen in the…arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,